Growth, Inflation & Employment
The three pillars of the macro backdrop. Growth determines the earnings environment; inflation determines the policy response; employment determines how much room a central bank has to act. The trajectory of each — not the latest print — is what matters.
Central Banks & Monetary Policy
Central banks set the price of money, which is the foundation of every asset's valuation. Their stance — accommodative, neutral or restrictive — and the expected path of rates are the single most powerful force across markets.
Forward Guidance
What central banks communicate about the future matters as much as what they do today. Guidance, dot plots, speeches and minutes are all parsed for shifts in the expected path. The market trades expectations, and expectations shift.
Expectations vs Reality
Markets move on the gap between expectations and reality. A strong jobs print that was expected may move nothing; a weak one that was not expected can move everything. Positioning relative to expectations is often more important than the data itself.
How Macro Moves Every Market
A change in the macro environment flows through rates, currencies, equities and commodities. This is why a cross-asset framework is not optional — it is the only way to see whether the macro signal is being confirmed or contradicted across markets.
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